A prediction by Counterpoint Research suggests that global smartphone shipments may drop by 5% year-on-year, reaching 1.2 billion units this year. This would be the lowest number seen in approximately ten years.

The research company's report, Smartphone 360 Global Smartphone Shipment Forecast, anticipates a 3% year-on-year increase in smartphone shipments in the fourth quarter of this year, with an expected total of 312 million units.

Apple is projected to shift its growth focus towards India, benefiting from the country's increasing adoption of high-end products. As such, Counterpoint Research predicts a 23% year-on-year growth for Apple's shipments in India by 2024, as announced by Liz Lee, Associate Director of Counterpoint Research.

However, Apple's global market share might experience a slight decline year-on-year in Q4 2023 and throughout 2024 due to the company's underperformance relative to Huawei in the Chinese market, Lee added.

After completing the destocking process with a generally healthy inventory by the end of the year, the global smartphone shipments are predicted to witness a 3% year-on-year growth next year. Positive signs also indicate potential recovery in emerging markets, uplifted by growing consumer confidence and bettering macro-economic conditions.

China, along with other emerging markets like the Middle East, Africa, and India, are believed to rebound from their current slump to drive growth in the global smartphone market starting from the fourth quarter. Despite Apple being traditionally dominant in Q4 due to the launch of new series, the company is expected to experience a 3% YoY volume decline in Q4 of this year, primarily due to Huawei’s aggressive growth in China and delays in smartphone upgrades in Japan.

In contrast, the smartphone market in North America and Europe is anticipated to remain stable. Apple is projected to match the marketplace's growth next year while dealing with challenges in its traditional markets. Economic factors such as high interest rates in the US, which lower consumer spending, and fierce competition in China's top-tier smartphone market, mainly from Huawei, are set to pose obstacles to Apple’s growth in 2024.