The smartphone market in India, one of the world's largest, is predicted to experience a slowdown in shipments during the crucial festive season for the second consecutive year, according to industry analysts and retailers. This is despite a decrease in the average selling price of smartphones and a surge of new launches. 

In the previous year, smartphone brands initiated early festive sales to clear inventory and stimulate demand. However, this strategy did not prevent a significant dip in shipments in the September quarter, which precedes the festive season. The International Data Corporation (IDC) reported a 10% year-on-year decline in shipments during this period.

Analysts and retailers predict that smartphone shipments will either remain steady or even decrease further during the current September quarter. They expect a decline in smartphone shipments in India this year, not just a flat growth compared to the previous year. The festive season, which starts in the last week of September and lasts until the first week of the new year, typically accounts for 60-65% of India's annual smartphone shipments.

According to IDC data, smartphone shipments fell 10% to 144 million units in 2022, with the second half of the year recording shipments of 73 million units. Tarun Pathak, research director at Counterpoint India, stated that the decrease in shipments during the festive period last year was due to record-high unsold inventories of more than 10 weeks.

However, consumer demand remains weak. Manish Khatri, a partner at Mumbai-based retailer Mahesh Telecom, said that device sales and consumer interest continue to be low. Kailash Lakhyani, founder and chairman of the All India Mobile Retailers’ Association (Aimra), also stated that there is no sign of any revival in demand so far, even with festive season offers.

IDC’s Singh suggested that a possible reason could be the gap in the market caused by a lack of appealing device options in the mainstream price categories of under 20,000—pushing more buyers towards the second-hand smartphone market. 

Industry projections estimate smartphone shipments in the June quarter at around 35 million units, which will cumulatively account for around 65 million units of smartphones shipped in the first half of the year. With a lack of demand in the market, smartphone shipments are unlikely to increase in the second half of the year—leading to a potential decline of another 10% year-on-year, this year.