Industry executives have asserted that India is poised to be a 5G-first nation in the next two years, with 70% of the country's smartphone users anticipated to access 5G mobiles. This switch to more advanced devices will be facilitated by falling prices and nationwide network coverage. Indeed, top smartphone brands such as Xiaomi, Vivo, Oppo, Realme, and Samsung, are already making plans to saturate the Indian market with cost-effective 5G phones.

Their associated retailers are offering numerous discounts and promotional deals to quickly sell out the existing 4G mobile phone stocks. By doing so, they will make room for the introduction of the next-generation gadgets. According to the India Cellular  Electronics Association , it is predicted that the number of 5G smartphones in India will increase more than twofold from 150 million at the end of 2023 to about 500 million by December 2025, representing an impressive 70% of the total smartphones collection.

ICEA chairperson, Pankaj Mohindroo, has mentioned that the surge will be led by customers seeking quicker connectivity options. In addition, a steady decline in the prices of 5G mobile phones will contribute to the shift, with the majority of models priced above $174 and those below $133 expected to primarily support 5G technology. It is believed that the nationwide deployment of 5G by telecom companies, coupled with the emergence of high-definition content and accessory gadgets, will stimulate a widespread desire for 5G mobile phones.

It's evident that these plans are already underway, as top smartphone brands like Xiaomi, vivo, Oppo, Realme, and Samsung have reduced the prices of their previous 4G handsets, as well as 5G devices launched earlier this year. These price reductions, effective from December 1, suggest that the brands are aiming to deplete stocks prior to the new year when they will primarily transition to 5G devices.

Retailers have been specifically instructed to sell out 4G smartphones in the $133-$265 range, as leading mobile phone brands are introducing competitively priced 5G smartphones this month and ensuring sufficient availability. Currently, only 1% of all smartphones under $133  sold in India are 5G phones, but this meager percentage is projected to rise dramatically to 14% in 2024 and then to 45% in 2025, according to estimates from Counterpoint Research.

Tarun Pathak, research director at Counterpoint, has estimated that roughly 94% of all smartphones in the $133-$265 price bracket sold in India next year will be 5G smartphones. The percentage is anticipated to increase even further to 99% in 2025. At present, 54% of smartphones sold in this price range are 5G-enabled. However, for a consistent adoption of 5G smartphones, there needs to be a steady stream of gaming apps, high-definition interactive content that typically operate on high-bandwidth networks, and a strong demand for state-of-the-art accessory devices like smart glasses and headsets.

India's total base of smartphones, not including second-hand and refurbished devices, is expected to rise to 600 million, 695 million and eventually 805 million by March 2024, March 2025, and March 2026, respectively, as per estimates by CLSA. Furthermore, Mohindroo from ICEA, reckons that by the end of December 2025, there will be over 700 million smartphones in India, out of which approximately 500 million units will be 5G devices. Counterpoint Research's current estimate of the total number of smartphones in India, which also takes into account second-hand and refurbished devices, is around 680 million, with 4G smartphones accounting for more than 80% of this figure.